The Curse of Political Impasse

By Heikal I. Kenneded

December 14, 2018

The Speaker of the Somali parliament, Mohamed Mursal may have pulled a surprise on President Farmajo by accepting the opposition to bring a no-confidence motion against him. With the opposition all set to bring its no-confidence motion against President Farmajo, they have found an unlikely ally with the Speaker, who seems to hold his own grudges against the President for undermining his authority as  a Speaker. The motion signed by dozens of opposition members of parliament outlined a long list of grievances against the President, including entering “secret agreements” with Ethiopia and Eritrea over port access and economic and security cooperation. Despite the unlikely success of an impeachment motion to pass at this time due to the contention that many of the signatory legislators in the list declared invalid, nonetheless it shows the political calamity that such motion of no-confidence represents.  This type of malicious political crisis has enormous implications for Somalia’s current fragile political system that could potentially threaten any hopes for a democratic government to take root in the country.

This latest standoff came amid allegations of corruption against the government by a parliamentary committee oversight on finance that declared in its annual report there was over a twenty-million dollars missing from the government’s coffers. The Farmajo government that took great pride in its fight against corruption did not receive well this pungent allegations and in retaliation pushed for the disbanding of the parliamentary oversight committee on finance through the deputies of the Speaker of Lower House of parliament.  All of this was happening while the Speaker was out of the country and he had to find out from the news outlets like everyone else, which did not sit well with him and thought he was completely undermined. Further, Speaker Mohamed Mursal was not content with President Farmajo’s unhelpful meddling of the looming elections in the South Western regional state, where the President recently dispatched hundreds of forces to “secure” the elections, while financing one of his ex-cabinet Ministers to win the election.

In lieu of all of these political upheavals, immediately upon his return into the country, the Speaker, Mohamed Mursal directed the finance oversight committee to continue their important work and rather disregard the recent decision made by his deputies to dissolve them. In fact, the Speaker’s disenchantment with the President was taken advantage by the opposition members in the parliament who instantly tabled their motion of no-confidence against the President. Given the bold decision the Speaker took to accept the no-confidence motion against the President, the political stakes are very high and everyone is very anxious the outcome of this latest political impasse in the highest echelons of government.

The power to remove the President through a no-confidence motion is an effective tool afforded to the legislators in the parliament and by triggering the President’s downfall, opposition legislators can significantly impact government direction in parliamentary democracies. Yet, it is highly unlikely the success of no-confidence motions and their chance to overthrow the government due to the high number of MPs who are currently serving in the government. In effect, President Farmajo has recently faced complaints during the first couple of years in office that he devotes too much time to partisan politics and that he is too headstrong to listen to the opposition’s grievances and other heads of regional states. The President nonetheless contends that the opposition is mainly to blame for the political feuding of recent months, including a virtual impasse in relations between his government and the powerful opposition administration in the regional states.

By trying to disrupt the voice of the opposition and that of most federal states, President Farmajo has recently made several unholy alliances with the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments without any consultations with the legislative branch of the government as required by the constitution. By discrediting the views of the political opposition and political process, the President is playing with fire as he edges the country towards another political instability. In other words, the President needs to acknowledge and respect the legislative review committees and the role they play as scrutiny and integrity mechanism in government, as part of good governance. 

On the other hand, the opposition contends that it is President Farmajo who threatens democracy by completely undermining their legislative role in government to provide necessary oversight of check and balance to the executive branch of the government. Interviews with several lawmakers suggest the move of no-confidence motion against the President was brewing for quite some time and it was just a matter of time before the Speaker also lost confidence in the President and allowed the opposition to table their motion of no confidence against the President. Due to the messy nature of such motion-business of the parliament, it is highly likely for the country to witness stormy political infighting. There is an urgent need to focus on those factors that limit the ability of the Somali government to frame and pursue policies necessary for effective ‘crisis-management’; only then will it be possible to assess the country’s capacity to deal with these political impasse. This would appear to be a necessary prerequisite for understanding the current political stalemate in Somalia, a stalemate brought about through the inability of the government to negotiate with opposition forces within the government and spearhead the country through peaceful means.

It was only eight months ago when President Farmajo rallied around his allies in the parliament to pressure the previous Speaker, Professor Jawari to resign from his post without any explanations or due process. This was bound to have serious repercussions of setting such autocratic precedence of political infighting that it’s now coming back to haunt him when he expected the least since he thought the new Speaker was in his circle until he undermined him and interfered his authority. This shows the political immaturity on both sides of the leadership who failed to resolve their issues amicably without resorting to ultimatums that only widens the gap of their working relationship.

In other words, in light of the constitutional provisions, a no-confidence motion cannot be brought against the President without the signatures of one-third of parliament, not to mention that it would require two-thirds of the legislators to vote him out. At the present political blow, it will derail the achievements of the past two years and throw the country in a status of uncertainty. The best way to push forward the country is to reach a political compromise among the various heads of government and political stakeholders before it comes to such unproductive motions of no-confidence that could derail the country’s scanty achievements in politics and security. More fundamentally, it is hard to see where such destructive political infighting could lead, when Al Shabab terrorists are bent on destroying the government in which they regard un-Islamic.

In the end, this latest motion of vote of no-confidence against the President may not come to pass, but still it will constitute a moral victory for the opposition to challenge the President on equal ground. President Farmajo nonetheless needs to make a fresh attempt to ''listen'' to lawmakers in the government in order to defuse confrontation with the opposition and overcome political divisions in by responding more quickly to economic and security challenges.

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Heikal Kenneded
heikalk@yahoo.com
Washington D.C. 

Pride and Prejudice in Somalia

By Heikal I. Kenneded
Wednesday, October 10, 2018

The heinous atrocity committed against Ahmed Muqtar Salah (aka Dowlo), a Somali Bantu who was reportedly stabbed to death and his body burned while still alive by the family of his nephew’s in-laws was a bloody reminder of how far Somalis have to go on accepting each other. While attacks of such barbarous nature are unusual in Somalia; nevertheless, cultural marginalization and tribalism against the so-called minority communities is still prevalent in a country that claims to be a homogenous society with one religion - Islam. In fact, marrying across cast lines is still a taboo that anyone who dares it risks of being disavowed by his or her family, especially marrying from a “lower” caste. This reprehensible murder took place after a young couple secretly eloped without the consent of the bride’s family, protesting their daughter’s marriage to a Bantu husband, the bride’s mother accompanied by several other relatives torched to death Mr. Dowlo at his garage, simply because he refused to divulge the whereabouts of the married couple.  It is now sadly unclear how to rectify such wanton violence against the Somali Bantu community who live in fear of such repercussions whenever they claim their equal rights as other Somalis.

This tragedy took place between two neighboring families who lived in the same vicinity “xaafada” for several decades. Unfortunately, in a country like Somalia vigilante violence is frequently committed with impunity, which is the primary obstacle to a lasting peace. This was no different from the atrocious honor killing practiced in most of the Middle East and some South East Asian countries, where couples who go against the practiced culture and marry outside of their caste are instantly killed by the closest relatives due to a perceived believe to have brought dishonor on the family.  In fact, discrimination and prejudice against the Somali Bantu communities, especially when it comes to intermarriage has been prevalent in the Somali culture since the dawn of history. Perhaps the most striking aspect of this latest horrific act is the barbaric nature the perpetrators carried out to express their prejudice against the uncle of the groom. The problem with societal prejudice and discrimination against certain communities is that it severely deprives the safety and potential opportunities of these marginalized communities. For instance, the social disapproval for intermarriage carries a disparaging stigmatization that precludes them interacting with the larger society and participating the existing socioeconomic market and they’re eventually forced to toil on the margins of the economy, not to mention the lack of getting access to proper education. To put it in perspective, we all know it’s wrong and much more importantly un-Islamic but continue to practice it out of shame and incongruity.

The bitter truth is that the Somali society is hypocritical of their retrograde practices of tribalism and marriage discrimination when it comes to intermarrying with so called minority groups, including the Somali Bantus. Part of the putrid odor emanates from the ongoing discrimination against these communities who are merely marginalized for their looks or past grievances for telltale stories committed by their ancestors. As such, most of the minority communities experience discrimination and restrictions in most fields, including lack of education, illiteracy and high unemployment rates. It is well documented in the history annals how Somali Bantus are treated as second-class citizens in their own country and barred from most socioeconomic and political opportunities. Their collective history of persecution as ethnic and communal minorities in Somalia, especially widespread atrocities committed against them during the civil war is a dark stain that will permanently remain in the soul of the Somali being.

Since there has not been any credible census in the country for the past half-century, Somalia is technically described as a nation with no minorities. The so-called Somali minorities are either predominantly agro-pastoral communities in the south, or artisans, such blacksmiths, leatherworkers, and hairdressers - in the north of the country who were marginalized by the predominant nomad clans. In this regard, the Somali Bantu communities have been falsely labeled as minorities and thus marginalized for decades due to their different lineage from other allegedly predominant clans. In other words, these communities have faced all kinds of domestic violence and abuse at the hands of “dominant” clans, even more during the civil war, when their land and farms were forcibly misappropriated by other warring clans who were the key war perpetrators. These communities especially those in the south have suffered some of the most unspeakable violation of their rights, including widespread rape and the systematic looting of their properties. It is estimated that one quarter of the Somali Bantu communities were annihilated during the civil war, while a great majority of them were internally and externally displaced and ended up in refugee camps.

The Somali Bantu communities primarily live in the Lower Juba and Shabelle valleys, where they have farmed and tilled the land for livelihood for the past century before they were recently invaded other Somali warring faction who expropriated their land, and in some cases enslaved them. Because they are considered lower caste than other nomadic clans, Somali Bantus and other marginalized communities of descent-based caste perform skilled services in the cities, which are traditionally considered "unworthy" or exceedingly menial, and for very little pay that amount to servitude. In result, most of these marginalized communities are trapped in a vicious cycle of extreme poverty, illiteracy and oppression. This includes severe under-representation in leadership positions and obstacles to political participation, which among others limit their access to essential services, such as proper healthcare and rightful land ownership. Indeed, human rights abuses against Somali Bantus borders that of the India’s “Untouchables” who are relegated to the lowest jobs, where they live in constant fear of being publicly humiliated and dehumanized with impunity by other major tribal groups seeking to keep them in their place. In fact, even during the last functioning regime, many of the crimes committed against these communities used to go underreported due to fear of reprisal, intimidation by their neighbors, or simply the knowledge that the police will do nothing.

Given the lack of strong judicial system in the Somalia, most of the predominant clans take the law into their own hands and commit such horrific crimes with impunity. Thus, the Somali federal government has to step up and commit to putting an end of the criminal marginalization and subjugation of defenseless Somali Bantu communities and others alike. In other words, more must be done to reintegrate these communities into the wider Somali society for them to achieve their potential because it is a disgraceful disregard for human rights to keep them in the shadows and their right trampled by wanton vigilantes. Otherwise, the search for a lasting peace in Somalia will perpetually remain elusive and problematic, as long as the government fails to address this structural violence that has greatly contributed to the intrastate crisis of the country, in the first place. Finally, both local and international human rights activists have limited themselves as concerned with gender inequality in Somalia by merely concentrating on relatively minor issues, such as setting up quotas for the number of women in the federal parliament and bestowing excessive praise when such minor reforms are put in place. Nevertheless, they have not tried to tackle the real elephant in the room, the elimination of systematic discrimination against minority communities. The time is long overdue for them to do so.

If you wish to help, a fundraising website has been setup to help the large family left behind by Mr. Dowlo: https://www.gofundme.com/weareallequal-justice-for-ahmed

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Heikal I. Kenneded

heikalk@yahoo.com

Washington D.C. importance of Supreme C

How Not to Engage With Ethiopia

By Heikal Kenneded

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

The new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent visit in Mogadishu marked unlikely shift in the two countries’ relations. In a joint communique statement issued by both President Farmajo and Prime Minister Ahmed have agreed to "strengthen their brotherly bilateral relations" and abolish trade barriers between the two countries, including investment of four major Somali ports. This unprecedented bilateral negotiations between the two neighboring countries has received mixed reviews that most Somalis could only sense the sinister side of Ethiopia investing in Somali ports, which it doesn’t have the financial capital to do so and could only be interpreted as a maritime  encroachment rather than economic investment. More fundamentally, it’s hard to see Ethiopia entering fair bilateral trade agreement with Somalia on equal grounds due to its historical aggressions and political meddling within Somalia. Given the fragility of the federal government Somali and the prevaili.ng political fragmentation within its regional states, it should not rush into entering bilateral agreements with any predatory nations and companies. No matter how friendly Ethiopia suddenly appears to be, any bilateral trade negotiation talks should be held off, scrutinized and publicly debated for due process.

Unfortunately, President Farmajo conveniently forgets (or he is ignorant of the new prime minister’s background) that Mr. Abiy Ahmed, as a former intelligence officer, is none but a protégé of the late cunning Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi who sent up to 10,000 troops into Somalia to commit unprecedented genocide that has driven close to a million of Somalis from their homes, not to mention laying the grounds of the current political undermining in the federal regional states. If President Farmajo seems to believe the century-old Ethiopian animosity towards Somalia would be overturned by a few hours’ visit of PM Abiy Ahmed in Mogadishu and chooses to fall for his gambit, he’s politically naïve, dangerously naïve.

The harsh truth is that the United Arab Emirates is behind Ethiopia’s current push to invest in these unnamed four major Somali ports by promising them to loan the funds to invest in these ports. This only comes after the UAE’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed recently visited Ethiopia, where he pledged to give Ethiopia $3 billion in aid and investments, which follows on the heels of the recent resolution banning the UAE state-owned DP World from working in Somalia by both the Upper and Lower Houses of the Parliament. Since DP World openly violated the independence and unity of Somalia, but this has done little to deter its destructiveness in the Horn of Africa and is bent up now to use Ethiopia as its Trojan horse to “take hostage” all major Somali ports for the next thirty years so that they do not compete with its ports. In other words, it is most Somalis’ firm belief there is a tacit Arab Gulf States policy to keep Somalia destabilized and penurious and they have found in Ethiopia a reliable proxy to achieve their subverting objectives.

Despite Mr. Abiy Ahmed appears to be a political reformist, he is caught up in a trap of his predecessors’ making whose policies towards Somalia were merely based on divide and conquer that has damaged Somalia’s stability for the last quarter of century. Since the majority in the ruling Ethio­pian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which has ruled the country despotically for the past 27 years are bent on keeping Somalia as a divided and weak nation state that takes its marching orders from Addis Ababa. No wonder, Abiy Ahmed's Speech soon after his return from Somalia created so much controversy by declaring the impending unity of the two nations. For the moment, it would be wise for the new Prime Minister of Ethiopia to move cautiously with his dealings of Somalia because there’s a huge confidence building measures that are needed to be established before the two nations could move towards economic bilateral relations. While perhaps it is strategically satisfying to normalize relations with a country that has undermined Somalia’s integrity and political stability for the past 25 years, and thus rushing to economic investment approach is unlikely to work. In reality, Ethiopia has greater leverage over Somalia than many imagine that could have irreprehensible consequences for the long future by allowing them to take over major strategic ports in the country.

In its efforts of Somalia trying to rise from years of violence and political instability, it’s very susceptible of being taken on a ride by various predatory nations and companies and the current leadership needs to be very cautious the true intentions of getting into any economic negotiations. The fact that Ethiopian troops have currently an immense presence in most regional states of Somalia that fact itself renders them in conflict of interest to such investments. As such, before Ethiopia considers cultivating any sort of economic bilateral relations with Somalia, there must be preceded other trust-building negotiations that erase fear and apprehension between the two societies, which have occupied their political minds for the longest time.  In other words, Somalia is currently is too unstable and fragmented to enter an equal bilateral negotiations with its neighboring hegemony - Ethiopia. 

To most Ethiopians, Somalis’ existential fears are exaggerated, blown up by the media to scare the people point out that Ethiopia has never been the aggressor. Even when Ethiopia invaded in southern Somalia, in 1996, it only did so to avert the danger that Islamic jihadist taking over Somalia represented to them. Instead, Ethiopians claim Somalis’ own divisive tribalism is the root of their instability, which is partly true. Nevertheless, most Somalis cannot shake off the reality of how Ethiopia represented to them an arch enemy of an existential threat for over a century. In any event, Ethiopia’s population and its economy are now both ten times bigger than Somalia’s and growing faster than most of African nations. Whereas Somalia relies on aid and begs foreigners to rebuild its army and economy, Ethiopia, by contrast, races on and it is now ready to flex its muscles throughout the Horn of Africa, not to mention that it has finally the UAE eager to be its friend in collusion to destabilize the Horn of Africa, especially Somalia. Further, Somalia’s major insecurities have been intensified over the years by natural disasters of drought, flooding, and starvation, which are all the more deeply felt because the government lacks the necessary financial capital to lift its people from these multifaceted natural and man-made catastrophes. Ethiopia therefore desires influence in Somalia for the sake of “strategic depth,” which means having control over its territory and coastline in order to legitimately flex its economic muscles in the Horn. Either way, Ethiopia wants Somalia to remain in the status quo of being weak and divided, but find a way to exploit its natural resources and coastlines.

Despite the many competing foreign policy demands for the Farmajo administration notwithstanding must not make a normalized Ethiopia-Somalia relationship as a top foreign policy priority. No other issue risks causing as much damage to the country’s credibility as its effective leader, as the prospect of Ethiopia-Somalia trade negotiations without any concrete . In the end, perhaps good economic relationships with Ethiopia might come one day, however, at the moment the best approach would be to wait and see how Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s approach and dealings with Somalia on equal ground might be quite different from his predecessors, at the highest levels and without equivocation that the only way to preserve any relationship with Ethiopia is to amend all past territorial and political transgressions before entering into any consequential economic negotiations. President Farmajo with his flexible policy and willingness to accept all Ethiopian false offerings could plausibly deliver his downfall.

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Heikal Kenneded
heikalk@yahoo.com
Washington D.C. 

Al-Shabab: A Legacy of Eternal Shame

By Heikal I. Kenneded August 31, 2001 August 2011 should be hailed as a turning point in the turbulent history of Somalia - a month laden with both momentous triumph and an eternal shame.  August 6, 2011 should be commemorated as the day that the defeated Al Shabab insurgents withdrew from the Somali capital Mogadishu, which signaled the beginning of the end of their tyranny.  In fact, the downfall of this terrorist group was a long time coming, but their painful legacy is something that won’t go away for a long time.  Whereas, August 14, 2011 should be remembered as a day of ignominy, after the United Nations formally proclaimed southern Somalia as a state of famine, where starvation and food crisis have devastated the lives of close to 3.2 million people. This latter date has a lasting impact. The gut-wrenching famine currently ravaging in southern Somalia is partly due to the worst draught in 60 years to hit Horn of Africa, but it was largely exacerbated by the despotic rule of the Al Shabab extremist insurgents.  Since the worst drought and food crisis have especially affected hard in the southern Somalia, which is the heart of Al-Shabab occupied territory, the famine distress is at its worst point.  The ensuing famine has forced many families to attempt to flee on foot to either for neighboring countries, or in the capital, where they believe they can get food aid. However, the famine in southern Somalia was in the making for as long as Al Shabab colonized in the southern provinces of the country. It’s no coincidence that the country’s breadbasket is now synonymous with abject poverty and famine.  Because the draconian reign of Al Shabab mainly depends and thrives on the recruitment of young men from the southern provinces, as young as nine years old.  This has largely contributed to the famine because these young men had been forcefully recruited in droves into the Al Shabab radical cadres, instead of tilling and cultivating their sustainable crops.  With the fading seasonal rains in the southern regions, compounded with the enforced recruitment of youngsters into Al Shabab militia has resulted in unprecedented famine that decimated the population in that part of the country.  In addition, Al Shabab to carry out their terrorization against the very people that they exploit with impunity, they first expelled all aid organizations from the territories that they colonized.  Once the devastation of famine hit the southern provinces, the answer of Al Shabab was one of denial, scapegoat and further radicalization by preventing the drought victims from fleeing to the capital and neighboring countries, while banning the aid agencies to come back and feed these drought victims.  Furthermore, it was alleged that Al Shabab burned whatever little food and medicine that trickled down to that part of the country, while they killed charity workers as part of their long-running campaign against international aid groups. Nevertheless, timing is everything and this is the most opportune time to expose the slow genocidal tactics of Al Shabab in southern Somalia, where they have caused irreparable havoc on many innocent lives.  In effect, their terror network is currently in great turmoil mired of internal disputes, dwindling resources, and most importantly loss of support from the populace in the southern regions that they control.  Al Shabab has to be put on the defensive and entirely driven out from every nook and cranny of their hideouts in southern Somalia.  Much will depend on taking advantage of this rare opportunity to drive the Al Shabab militia out of the southern provinces and on the run.  In other words, the success of the transitional government will depend on how effectively they make the most of this tragedy by simply recognizing its silver lining.  The timing is also right for the humanitarian relief to flow in because further delays could literally mean the difference between life and death.  Once the impact of the famine is abated, the Somali government needs to address the famine problem at its roots and urge the international community to tune back in order to end the perpetual failed state of Somalia. The bottom line is Al Shabab is a callous proxy for the Al Qaeda terrorist group, rife with Taliban wannabes who are at war with their own people.  They govern by maiming, killing, kidnapping, and now starving of their hostage masses in southern Somalia.  Anyone who has the slightest doubt about what Al Shabab stands for should watch this video that vividly documents how Al Shabab physically handicapped an innocent teenager, named Ismail Khalif Abdulle who became a victim of Al Shabab, after they barbarically double amputated his limbs and later hung them in the town’s square as a lesson to others.  His alleged crime: stealing cell phones -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgYsa3sGXbc&feature=player_embedded# In the end, if Somalia ever finds peace, the legacy of Al Shabab will be nothing but an eternal shame of repression and starvation that Somali people will remember as one of the darkest days during the Somali civil strife quagmire. Heikal Kenneded Washington D.C. heikalk@yahoo.com

The Trepidation of Mogadishu Becoming another Regional State

By Heikal I. Kenneded

Monday January 29, 2018

Former mayor of Mogadishu Thabit Abdi

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With the latest revelations on last week that the young and dynamic mayor of Mogadishu, Thabit Abdi lost his job because he became an ardent advocate of the capital, Mogadishu becoming another regional state, hoping to achieve for the capital city an equal status to other regional states and eventually become its president in order to enjoy a greater degree of autonomy. In this light, most people are asking themselves the good question: “Whether Mogadishu should become one of the Federal Member States?” But to understand the core problem of rushing to such new state formation, here it’s instructive to remember how problematic it could be of creating a parallel government. There are obvious reasons for not allowing Mogadishu to become part of the Federated States, especially its important location as the seat of the Central Federal Government. If the capital city were to become another regional state, the members of the central government would be unduly beholden to it. In other words, creating a parallel regional state in the capital would reign in the proceedings of the central government to get their way, simply by virtue of physical proximity to Villa Somalia.

Emboldened by his relative popularity, the mayor is allegedly suspected of stirring up the city’s residents to form Benadir regional state of equal status of other regional states in the country.  It’s a real political tragedy that the unrivaled ambition of the mayor who presented himself as a progressive reformist came to such an abrupt end, simply because he couldn’t be in step with the same administration that nominated to the post, in the first place. Despite the grave security challenges facing the capital city, not to mention the necessity to provide access to public education for the hundreds of thousands of children, instead the mayor to choose the formation of a regional state shows lack of political maturity and innovation.  In political science, political immaturity is defined as the inability of politicians to differentiate between the season for politicking and when to concentrate on governance, which is none but basically improving the welfare of the average masses.

Some may say, mayor Thabit might have been used by other political disruptors whose main intentions were to create another distraction for the fledging government led President Farmajo, likewise on how proponents of the Jubaland state created unnecessary diversion for President Hassan Sheikh’s first year in office. Perhaps it is, but I also see it as a sign that as Somalis, we are unable to come up with political ideals and are lacking in political maturity as a society. It also appears that quite a lot of those sponsoring the formation of a Benadir regional state are splinter groups of opposition groups; mainly formed by disgruntled members of the parliament — more often than not – lost in becoming ministers. In the end, mayor Thabit should have been focused in securing the capital’s security apparatus and rebuilding the city’s debilitating infrastructure, instead of waging a political war.  In a political war that could have set back the country's future.

In a country like Somalia where there are deep divisions among its different clans, the seat of the central government should be located in a neutral state, where no single clan has superior sway over other residents in the capital city. Mogadishu is home to at least 3 million residents of every clan and background and thus negates the proprietorship of a single clan or people over others. In other words, I would foresee Mogadishu’s political status as like Washington DC, where residents of the capital have no voting representation in Congress and the federal government maintains jurisdiction over the city, as well as a say in Constitutional Amendments and the right to home rule. Thus, the lack of statehood for the capital should be clearly enshrined in the country’s Constitution. The most urgent task now falls on the country’s central parliament to amend the laws governing the capital city’s legal entity. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the Somali provisional constitution that was adopted on August 1, 2012 by a National Constitutional Assembly in Mogadishu, stipulates that two or more regions may voluntarily merge to form a federal member state.

The alternative, which means the creation of a dual sovereignty and parallel government made up of local and federal government that will only increase the political chaos that hampered the country’s evolution into a stable federal government. Unfortunately, much of the political disrupters are reluctant to accept such neutrality of the political status of the capital city and advocating the capital city to have a regional state stature.  Nevertheless, due to the current political dispensation in Mogadishu towards regional state is not the result of a natural process, but rather the predominant clans in the capital and its surroundings’ competition for political power.

Similar dynamics were recently evident in the challenges from other heads of federal regional states with the central government in regards of foreign affairs and other relevant bilateral negotiations. While a federal government is a system that divides up power between a strong national government and smaller local governments, it seems strange nowadays when we’re thoroughly accustomed the opposite. There should therefore be legal sanctions against such usurpation of power. For instance, the federal government should have jurisdiction over regional states in all matters concerning national interest.  In other words, unlike centralized forms of governments, federalism is a hierarchical system of government in which two levels of government administer a variety of control over the same geographic area and that’s where the trepidations of federalism lie.

Some warnings are in order, federalism is a very messy form of government and Somalia did not choose this path on its own accord but rather imposed upon by unhelpful key international players, which neither had in mind the political stability nor the promotion of democracy and peace in the country. Unfortunately, it’s too late to turn the clock back, but the current leadership is on the right track of reaching comprise with the Federal Member States in regards of resource-sharing, power-sharing and political representation, until a strong central government is being established. What’s striking is how many crooked politicians and greedy clan elders are trying to take advantage of this fragile state of the country to promote disunity and fragmentation in the federal political system, however, the Central Government should not tolerate it for the sake of the country not perishing from the face of the earth. 

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Heikal I. Kenneded
Washington D.C.
heikalk@yahoo.com 

The Ignoble Betrayal of Colonel Abdikarim Muse (Qalbi-dhagax)

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

By Heikal Kenneded

Somalis around the world are quite stunned about the controversy of illegal extradition of a Somali national to the repressive Ethiopian authorities.  The revelations came as Colonel Abdikarim Sheikh Muse, known as Qalbi-dhagax who was recently captured while on a short visit in the Galmudug region – in the town of Adado for family matters. He was initially suspected of being part of the Al-Shabab terrorist group and haphazardly thrown in jail, according to reliable sources. However, when his name was checked against the database of Ethiopian list of terrorists, he was suspected as a designated terrorist leader of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Interestingly, the situation get out of hand when high ranking security officials in Mogadishu became aware last week about the secret venal negotiations between the Galmudug regional officials with the Ethiopian government in the handover of Colonel Qalbi-dhagax, which allegedly involved money bribery.  The same sources allege the highest Somali national security forces visited the town of Adado to take over the situation and immediately put Qalbi-dhagax in a military aircraft and delivered him in Mogadishu on Sunday and then transferred him to an Ethiopian base in Baidoa on the following Monday, and eventually to Ethiopia. Colonel Qalbi-dhagax ‘s extradition is an opening gambit for Somalia’s diplomatic relationship with Ethiopia.

So far, the Somali government declined to comment on the important questions of why, how and whose decision was the illegal extradition of Colonel Qalbi-dhagax to the Ethiopian government. But ironically the only concrete comment regarding this issue was made by the Ethiopian Communication Minister who declared that the Somali authorities handed them over Colonel Qalbi-dhagax.  it’s alleged that Ethiopia demanded that Colonel Qalbi-dhagax should be extradited to Ethiopia for his involvement in plotting terror attacks in various parts of Ethiopia and allegedly being the mastermind behind the Apr 24, 2007 – when ONLF gunmen launched an attack on the oil field in the Ogaden regional state, where a Chinese company was exploring for oil and thus allegedly killed 65 Ethiopian employees. Still, the Somali government should have required like any sovereign entity to see any substantial evidence to hand him over to Ethiopia, instead of now enduring so much controversy in the public arena.


If President Farmajo doesn’t change course and directly speak to the public about this horrendous blunder of his government and immediately sack all high ranking official and security elements involved in this case, he would allow to lose the unprecedented public support that he achieved in his presidential election. The public would prefer to the let the president absolve himself and explain what exactly happened, instead of allowing the social media to fester with unfounded innuendos.  President Farmajo is rallied behind because he was his own man and would never succumb to the pressures of the hegemony of the Ethiopian authoritarian regime

But for now, President Farmajo seems grimly to practice what other Somali regional leaders have been practicing in the past to appease the draconian Ethiopian regime in order to secure their power. He is merely acting on the proposition to extradite whoever the Ethiopian government accuses of terrorism, despite any due process. In taking this step, President Farmajo is not only betraying the Somali constitution that he swore to uphold, but also the unwavering support of the Somali public both in the country and in the diaspora who wholeheartedly rallied behind his recent election. Now, it’s quite distressing to see that President Farmajo’s men are allegedly in dock over the illegal extradition of a Somali national to Ethiopia.

Speaking to reporters on his quarterly media chat, last week Prime Minister Hassan Kheyre was asked the serious allegations of handing over Colonel Qalbi-dhagax to Ethiopia, but the microphone was unceremoniously highjacked by the head of the country’s national security officer, Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sanbololshe’s who claimed that this was a “serious” issue and the government will comment at an appropriate time. Then the Prime Minister declined to further comment on the issue, in complete agreement of Sanbololshe. Nevertheless, this political gaffe has also exposed sharp differences between President Farmajo and his subordinates, which represents an opening for the enemy.  Though President Farmajo’s defenders may point to either being set up by the corrupted Ethiopian government or being undermined by his incorrigible subordinates.

It’s alleged the security forces of the Somali Government orchestrated this egregious handover of Colonel Qalbi-dhagax to the repressive Ethiopian government in order to appease its meddling of the Somali regional politics, according to Somali intelligence officials.  Nevertheless, President Farmajo cannot absolve himself of any wrong doing because no matter who was responsible of this egregious act of illegal extradition of a Somali national to the enemy of the state, the buck stops with him. Since there is so much hysteria and misinformation, the President needs to clear the air and start separating fact from fiction, because no one else will do that for him.

Historically, Ethiopia has repeatedly charged that its troops are in Somalia mainly because of security reasons to protect its borders and further alleged the successive Somali governments are not equipped of containing such security threats. Intelligence officials said their working theory since this incident is that either President Farmajo or Prime Minister Hassan Kheyre during their most recent visit to Ethiopia made a pact with the government of Ethiopia to extradite any alleged terrorists to Ethiopia. In this pretext, Ethiopia justifies its naked invasion on Somalia territory.

In justifying the alleged kidnapping of Colonel Qalbi-dhagax, Ethiopia alleges that he is a high-ranking member of the ONLF rebel group that wages war against their repressive government. Even this is a big stretch, and it is not enough for the Somali government to commit such criminal act of extrajudicial extradition. Because most people who closely know the history of Colonel Qalbi-dhagax assert that he has devoted most of his military career in defending the Somali unity and joined the Somali army at the age of 17 years old. Further, he was a resident of the capital for the past three years, where he peacefully lived and committed no crimes, known to anyone. In the end, this illegal extradition incident will most likely open a bitter feud among the country’s different branches of government that might simmer for months, which in the end has the potential of destabilizing the country.

Again, the question that is on everyone’s lips is who from the Somali Government meted out this gross injustice to Colonel Qalbi-dhagax? Is there a cabal of crooks working in Somalia for extradition related cases?

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Heikal Kenneded
heikalk@yahoo.com
Washington D.C.

President Farmajo’s Delicate Balancing Act

President Farmajo’s Delicate Balancing Act

By Heikal I. Kenneded

Monday, July 24, 2017

President Farmajo came to office scarcely five months ago.  His election was a transformational moment for Somalia has rarely appeared more united than when he was elected as a president.  He campaigned to eradicate corruption from the ranks of government and more importantly to either bring the Al-Shabab terrorists into the fold or wipe them out. Yet he had many more challenges awaiting him, inheriting a country in disarray, politically deadlocked and financially strained, not to mention a dismal state of insecurity.  The biggest single problem for the president, however, has been the fight against corruption as a broader strategy against terrorism.  Nonetheless, his recent declaration of waging war against the Al-Shabab terrorists while dressed in military fatigues and the subsequent flawed disarmament of the capital’s remnant warlords from illegal arms were a bit misplaced and rather naïve.  The real culprit sustaining the intransigent Al-Shabab terrorists in the country is the shadowy and unregulated finance methods based on mobile money-transfer system that they use to finance their deadly attacks.  Unless the government goes after the illegal resources funding these terrorists, their efforts will be futile.  The fight against corruption as a first-order national security priority must be able to follow the trail of the money.  The government has to find a way to completely take control of the flow of money inside the country and that will mean reining in the elusive mobile money-transfer system, while revitalizing the traditional formal banking system. Categorically, mobile payment system has become the bank of choice for the terrorists, which is firmly controlled by rogue businessmen who neither care about country nor freedom, but President Farmajo’s government should strive to reverse this risky finance system.

 If President Farmajo wishes to be more pragmatic than his predecessors in prioritizing the security and financial transparency of the country, then he needs to be very careful not to get caught up in a trap of his predecessors’ making by succumbing to the country’s Big Business entrapments.  Though, a government like Somalia with a fledgling economy is bound to find itself at the mercy of local Big Businesses for loans and financial support.  But alos at the same time to come hard against their butter and bread that’s a delicate balancing act.  In fact, how President Farmajo handles that very balancing act may determine the future success or failure of his government.  In other words, fighting terrorism and corruption without alienating Big Businesses is a very tricky balance.  Most experts on terrorism agree that long gone are the days of trying to defeat terrorists by waging a war, but disrupting their supply of finance should be the most critical target. On the other hand, those arguing how the services provided by the telecom industry and Big Businesses’ economic contribution to the development of the country in general to outweigh the security of the country are merely hardened capitalists who care nothing about peace and the safety of generations to come.

The President still has time to learn from the mistakes by his predecessors; unless he’s too squeamish to stand up to these rogue capitalists and see them in their true color – war profiteers.  For the moment, the President is moving cautiously in the direction of financial reform as his administration reprints the country’s first Somali Shilling notes in more than a quarter century, while trying to collect local taxes.  The most astonishing aspect of Al-Shabab’s resilience for the last decade is despite under severe pressure, they still manage to wreak havoc on Somali societies most vulnerable.  More fundamentally, these terrorist are increasingly financing themselves and disrupting their supply of finance is a critical issue.  Hence, the efforts to clamper money-laundering and counter-terrorism through the digital system should go hand in hand and the government will be able to kill two birds with one stone. Of course, the country’s very powerful telecom companies will surely retaliate and resist such necessary regulatory changes that will most likely strangulate their businesses.  What form could such regulations take?  First, instead of asking telecom and wire-transfer companies to self-regulate, ask them to get in sync with the country’s telecommunication and banking regulatory framework and become accountable to the country’s laws. Because if these companies are allowed to continue in their current lazes faire trend, they are bound to run the country to the ground.

It’s no coincidence that mobile money-transfer systems are most prevalent in countries with feeble financial laws and failed states like Somalia with either little or no enforcement against financial fraud and money-laundering schemes.  The sole reason that customers regularly need not to prove their true identity is what draws terrorists to launder their illicit finances through the mobile money-transfer system.  The fact is that, the entire mobile money transfer process often circumvents a country’s financial reporting system, which makes it almost impossible for government authorities to take a stock of these subtle digital transactions.  The government has every right to track and trace all digital financial transactions in relation to terrorism and money-laundering.  This will require, however, the Somali government to first seek assistance with the formidable technological know-how necessary to detecting and monitoring these elusive transactions.

The Dilemma

Since the collapse of the Somali nation-state, coupled with the disappearance of the federal financial banking system, money laundering and terrorism have thrived with the advance of using mobile money transfer system.  It’s a high time that the new Somali government administration shift its gears to monitoring the flow of digital funds that finances terrorism. Since these transactions are made through mobile phones and text messages, there’s naturally no way to trace them, let alone secure proof for prosecutions.  The current federal government should incorporate a concrete financial instrument of national power in their efforts to combat terrorism and corruption.  Unscrupulous money laundering throughout the country and mafia style of levying businesses illicit taxation that foster terrorism finance measures have significantly hamstrung the current struggle to uproot terrorism in Somalia. 

During the past decade, Al-Shabab operatives have mainly financed their terrorist operations and supported their networks by borrowing a page from the Mafia-style shakedowns of local businesses that pay monthly “zakat” donations for protection.  In fact, it’s no secret that most of Mogadishu’s major businesses that recent years became major targets for terrorist attacks were the ones who either delayed or declined their monthly extortions levied by the Al-Shabab for whom threats, intimidation, extortion and violence have become a modus operandi. Similarly, reigning on the hawala wire transfer system, as most developed countries have carried out recently is worth duplicating.  In other words, following the money trail and surveillance of facilitators, like the telecom industry and hawala wire transfer companies in their involvement efforts to move and shelter money for terrorist and criminal groups, it will produce critical financial intelligence that will lead to the weakening of illicit actors such as Al Shabab and other corruption agents.

Although mobile money transfers system has provided Somalis with a lifeline to remittances from around the globe, not to mention with unprecedented access to goods, services, capital and information – better, faster, and cheaper. In fact, greater efficiency in wiring money has sustained the country’s fragile economy during the past quarter century.  Millions of Somalis now use their mobile phones to manage their finances and their numbers are growing daily. Despite all the great benefits resulting from a better access to capital, the dark side of mobile money transfer concurrently has sanctioned and empowered terrorism, crime, and corruption around the country.  In other words, while mobile money transfer promotes greater access to capital and livelihood, on the same vein it sponsors illicit activities that render impossible for traditional investigative tools like “following the money trail” for the government to better understand, detect, disrupt and dismantle these illicit networks that eventually sponsor terrorism.  Thus, closely auditing the digital financial flows around the country should be paramount in fighting against the intransigent Al-Shabab terrorism.

Dozens of street-corner shops in Mogadishu sell hundreds of thousands of mobile-phone airtime and thus having a strong command of the county’s hard currency, and yet not accountable to any government regulations.  It’s no secret that these telecom companies have made unholy alliances with the Al-Shabab terrorists for protection.  Since annually an estimated $1.4 billion of Somalia’s GDP out of $6 billion of imports comes from in the form of remittances from Somalis living in the diaspora, there’s a huge risk of falling into the hands of terrorists. Since customers trade cash for virtual charge that goes into their phone, which becomes an electronic account.  These customers can then pay bills, buy essentials, transfer funds and more importantly receive credit on their phones.  Besides being easy to use, it’s usually virtually way less transparent than traditional money-transfer services.  Thus, it’s no wonder that the Al-Shabab terrorists found a safe-haven in these impersonalized financial transactions to run their extortion businesses that finances their deadly attacks.  In lieu of this risk, the current Somali government has to do broad consultations with both the private and public sectors in order to assure investors on what this will mean for trade and business.

The ultimate question is whether anything can be done to curb the telecom companies that collude and facilitate terrorist activities.  The answer is surely yes.  The previous governments have obviously underestimated the potential threat presented by these unregulated telecom companies and their dangerous involvement with the terrorists than many have realized, and it is high time to confront them with the urgency, intensity, and resources they deserve.  In doing so, President Farmajo can help rebuild a Somali society that is not only more transparent and accountable, but also more secure and safe from the existential threat of terrorism.

Finally, President Farmajo’s government faces a stark choice to either appease the country’s strong Big Business, including telecom companies like Hormud and Dahabshil, or to honestly curb the horrible atrocities daily visited on Mogadishu’s residents by Al-Shabab, by any means necessary.  These resilient terrorists have proven time and time again they cannot be easily dislodged from their hideouts by the muzzle of the gun or intense drone attacks to root them out.  A paradigm shift is needed from the current Somali government to fight terrorism and there’s no better place to start with reigning in the country’s incorrigible telecom companies. Telecom companies to be in compliance they need to closely work with the federal telecommunication ministry, the National Bank and other financial regulators to review the systems and regulations in place to ensure they meet the highest national financial standards. The same strict regulatory standards should be imposed on remittance wiring companies like the hawala for international funds transfers in order to control any potential illicit wiring to terrorists. 

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Heikal I. Kenneded

heiakalk@yahoo.com

Washington D.C.

Somalia: No Country for Honest Men

“Every nation gets the government it deserves”

Thursday, January 26, 2017

By Heikal I. Kenneded

                                             Somalia presidential candidates. 

In more than three trips to Somalia over the past five years, I’ve come to rewrite my own perception of where the country is headed and it doesn’t look promising because the future of Somalia looks gloomier than at any time in post-civil war era. Despite the positive tone of my past comments of the country and much of what I often write about Somalia, especially my belief that Somalia is on the mend to recover from its horrific collapse. Regrettably on my most recent trip, I did find myself tormenting more and more about the dismal record of current cadre of leadership who are in power, not to mention those others who are vying to run the country. Just when things seem as though they can’t get any worse in Somalia, the country finds itself much worse predicament that puts everyone else on the edge. The picture is not only disturbing but rather disheartening because the country’s economy remains fragile at best, as recovery continues to be hampered by the challenging security environment posed by Al-Shabab and widespread corruption that pervades every sector of the country from the highest government officials to local security forces to non-government institutions (NGOs), not to mention avaricious money-lords who privatized most of the basic services, including telecommunication, healthcare, schools, power plants, banking and even created their own private security forces. As a result, I came to the kernel truth of how Somalia has become a den for corrupt politicians backed by merciless businessmen who would not hesitate to run the country to the ground in order to enrich themselves and there’s no place for honest men or women. Corruption is the single biggest threat to Somalia’s path towards a lasting peace and prosperity.


I flew into Mogadishu in the week leading to the elections for the Speaker of the parliament and his deputies and I saw it with my own eyes the vicious political wheeling and dealing among the country’s political elites who eventually elected two out of the three officials from the last parliament to their old seats. Ironically, in a country where no significant wages were paid in the last seven months to both the security forces and the civil service employees, including the MPs, a great deal of money is floating around in the capital. On daily basis, expensive parties are thrown throughout Mogadishu's hotels, where presidential candidates backed by foreign elements are readily spending a huge amount of cash in order to court MPs' vote in their favor. If it's any indication of the recent parliamentarian elections that has revealed how financial factor is the sole driver of winning their seats by a great majority of members of the parliament (MPs), there's a little chance that they will abide the constitution and elect the best candidate for the job. This will have the catastrophic consequence of throwing back the country in the back burner and risking both the territorial and maritime of Somalia to get annexed by neighboring countries, who have been eyeing for a long time Somalia’s exceptional strategic location and abundant natural resources.

A City of Two Tales 
Mogadishu is fast becoming a city defined by its disparate lives – those few high profile corrupt politicians and money-lords who live the lavish lives, as millions of the populace struggle to get by as they are deprived of basic necessities, such food, clean water, sanitation, housing and access to healthcare and proper education.  In effect, corruption in the country has created unprecedented extreme poverty and exclusion. Shortly after I arrived at the capital, I decided to take a tour around the city and it would be an understatement to say the least that I was shocked to witness the extensive level of gun culture of various forces in full army gear riding in the back of their pickup trucks. I drove by the military bases of various security forces that didn’t’ report to the government but rather were financed and trained by different foreign governments, including the UAE and the U.S. I felt as though I descended into a scene of the Mad Max movie set, where gunmen ruled the day. Despite the overload of security forces in the capital, attacks from Al-Shabab have not been averted and the city is as highly explosive as ever.

Paradoxically, the increased security throughout the capital and much of the rest of the country has resulted in more insecurity for others in Somalia, as this stepped-up protective presence has seemed to backfire. One of the tragedies that I witnessed during my first week of visiting the country's capital involved between a family man accompanied by his two sons who just returned from the Friday prayers and in the midst of the city's traffic jam when his car got a bit "too close" to the vehicle transporting one of those "self-important" MPs. These trigger-happy security details instantly opened fire and fatally shot the poor civilian in the midst of his children in the car to witness such carnage. In fact, the city's streets are occupied by such pickup trucks laden with gun wielding military men ready to shoot in the first instance of suspecting a threat towards their “Big Man.” Interestingly, I visited the dwelling places of several such "self-important" high profile government officials and I was taken back the number of gunmen safeguarding their houses, sometimes exceeding over two-dozen gunmen. No wonder such cosseted government officials cared little about the country's serious security lapses, as long as they retreat to their own silos, where they are lavishly catered to a life full of debauchery and selfishness. This reminded me of 1980s prewar Somalia during the waning era of the Siyad Barre regime, when corrupt high profile government officials partied like it was 1999, until it was too late to repent and the entire nation-state collapsed. Needless to say the country has a long way to go in recovering from the ravages of the last two decades of civil war.

An Improvised Visit to Baidoa

Disillusioned of what I have seen in the capital, I decided to travel outside of Mogadishu and paid an spontaneous visit to Baidoa, where I had anticipated encountering a much more serene environment and more political progress towards stability and peace. As soon as I landed at the city’s makeshift airport, I was disappointed by the sheer dominance of the Ethiopian forces who manned every security checkpoint with total control of the airport and its adjacent U.N compound. Upon my arrival in the heart of the city, dust seemed to blow from every corner of town and when I wondered aloud how come the city had no single paved road.  I was shocked to learn that few years ago the Turkish government offered to pave the city’s streets for free, but became disenchanted after both the governor and mayor at the time demanded to get paid the specific amount of $70,000 U.S dollars in bribes. Mind you this is a region in the country, where safe water is still one of the most difficult commodities to come by due to below-average rains during the last rainy seasons. The scarcity of this essential resource continues to challenge the health of the locals who as of late were hard hit by an epidemic of cholera. Unfortunately, women and children are particularly hard hit, especially in areas experiencing continued food insecurity and conflict. In fact, a close friend of mine confided in me that on a daily basis an estimated 30 people die of cholera. However, neither the regional authorities nor the federal government has yet to declare an emergency status of such an outbreak and set up cholera treatment units, but rather busy with their fraudulent political campaigns.

The Way Forward

In the end, every nation gets the government it deserves and I’m sure the Somali people are no different that they must deserve the kind of leadership that emerges among them in every few years who take them back to another miserable decade of decadence and poverty.  If Somalia is to circumvent its current political quagmire and destabilizing insecurity that has paralyzed every sector of the society, the people have to strive in electing honest leaders, instead of voting with either their pockets or clan allegiance.  Indeed, the impending presidential election offers such an opportunity that will test the will of the newly elected 329 parliamentarians to give their votes to the most honest and capable leader among the candidates.  Another urgent task that the new houses of parliament should tackle is passing a legislation to establish an Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate against all those politicians who live beyond their means and graft on all public sectors. No one should be above the law and policymakers should lead by example to the people. Nonetheless, if they fail to do so and ignore the historical duty encumbered upon them, Somalia and its people risk an existential threat that might wipe them out from the face of the earth. Because the county can no longer afford another four lackluster years of political logjam and full of corruption, a real change is needed.


Heikal I. Kenneded
heikalk@yahoo.com
Washington D.C