Who Lost
Somalia, Yet Again?
By Heikal I.
Kenneded
March 16, 2016
For a brief, happy —
and misguided — moment, most Somalis thought the government and its
AMISOM allies were winning the war against the terrorist group of Al-Shabab,
who were on the path of a terrible defeat as they were driven out most of their
military bases and major towns that they once ruled with iron grip. As a new
hope was dawning, most Somali families in the Diaspora were either gearing up
for spending their summer vacations in their native country, or gradually relocating
there permanently while businesses were sprouting up all over the capital.
However, such dreams were appallingly dashed by the recent events of series
violent suicide bombings in the capital and the rest of the country, which
seems as though the terrorist group is from the dead. This is hardly surprising, given the fact that
there’s neither an effective Somali national army capable of fighting against the
terrorist group, nor are AMISOM troops willing to fight off the enemy face to
face. With this new reality, many people question who failed Somalia and how to
reverse the tide again before Somalia risks
going back to its archetypal failed state. Nonetheless, the main threat to an effective Somali state security lies in the hands of the UN Security
Council that recklessly extends its arms embargo imposed on the country since 1992, which egregiously undermines Somalia’s sovereignty.
Somalia seems to be
plunging back into chaos as the country experiences the precarious resurgence of
the terrorist group Al-Shabab. For instance, the recent atrocity visited upon Mogadishu’s Lido beach
and many other landmark locations in the capital, throughout the country are all bloody reminders the callousness of the
Al-Shabab terrorist group and how they do not discriminate innocent civilians
from armed forces. Though Al-Shabab’s
incredulous capability to strike at any time at any place is not a sign of
strength but rather speaks volumes of the fledgling government in the country’s
ineptitude to use the national security apparatuses in place, instead of
playing “Duck and Cover.” True, the government seems to have lost touch with
reality and therefore neither is interested in bringing peace to the country,
nor capable of doing so, even if it had the will. In fact, the Somali
government’s ineptitude and downright incompetence is highlighted how they
failed to prepare the country for the 2016 elections for a one-man one-vote
that resulted in the protraction of the contentious 4.5 system. Given the
chronic corruption within the government and all of its ineptness to safeguard
the county’s security, the UN’s vacillating
army embargo has become a major contributor to the worsening insecurity in the
country.
Despite its many shortcomings, the Somali government is
desperate enough that it unceasingly blames the UN’s Monitoring Group for recommending
the extension of the unbearable arms embargo on Somalia. As a result, Somalia’s
government has to cope with being safeguarded by the AMISOM troops while the country’s
army languishes in a state of despair. Up until now, there’s not a set date
that AMISOM peacekeeping troops will leave the country so that a standing
Somali army to take their place as a permanent replacement. Nor is the Somali
army likely to get any relevance and proper support to stand on its own and
take full ownership of the country’s fledgling security, as long as the AMISOM
forces are the focal point of being responsible for the country’s security and
stability. Somalia to move beyond the so called failed state, UN Security
Council needs to reconsider its arms embargo on Somalia.
The
Challenges of the UN Army Embargo
An intense drone campaign has recently decimated
several Al-Shabab military bases and killed their core leadership, despite all
of these bombings against the terrorist organization, it hasn’t weakened them
the least but rather brought them back from the grave to continue their
ruthless killings of the innocent. In fact, they’re continuously reconstituting
their dark forces by retreating to parts of the interior they see as safe. In
fact, with the death of Al-Shabab’s intransigent leader Abdi Godane two years
ago, most Somalis hoped to see the terrorist group pushed into either ragtag
army that might desperately. However, the recent military raids on AMISOM bases are a proof
that Al-Shabab is anything but defeated. The
most dismaying aspect of Al-Shabab’s most recent resurgence is their vengeful
penchant to target most peaceful landmarks in the capital that represent a
sense of normalcy and statehood. On the
other hand, while drone attacks on targeted Al-Shabab terrorist bases are
lethal and serve as significant deterrent, however, they also function as a central
source of jihadist inspirations and recruiting purposes. Moreover, most
terrorist experts have long made the link that drone strikes only fuel
militancy in most countries because of their tendency to mistakenly hit on the
innocent. Thus, seeing from that point of view, the United Nations needs to
lift its debilitating arms embargo on the Somali government, which over the
years has become a major obstacle to
the formation of a professional and strong national army to effectively fight
against these terrorists. There are no shortages of arms inside Somalia and
therefore the irrational thinking that the embargo is an effective deterrent
that armaments do not fall into the wrong hands, no longer holds water.
Moreover, the partial easing of the arms embargo in
the past for the Somali government to buy some weapons and ammunition has
helped past governments. It has enabled
the Somali government to equip the Somali national army, as part of the overall
effort to build a national army capable of taking full control of Somalia's
security. No wonder, all Somali citizens across the board now agree the need to
effectively rebuild the Somali army as the panacea of safeguarding the country’s
lack of security. It is quite delusional in part of the international community
and the UN to continuously peddle the unsustainable mandate that Somalia’s
security will be guaranteed by the AMISOM forces. It is rather preposterous to spend
much needed resources and funding for peacekeeping forces while the Somali
National Army (SNA) does not get paid for months, not to mention lacking much
needed military equipment, vehicles, communications technologies, barracks and
medical facilities, which tremendously contributes the Somali army’s low
morale.
There’s no doubt that the UN and the international
community are more sympathetic to the dubious agenda of the neighboring
countries, such as Ethiopia and Kenya who are bent on keeping Somalia in its status quo of chaos and weak state.
Nevertheless, if history is any indication, no neighboring country in the Horn
will be in peace, unless Somalia itself is at peace and that’s where the true
challenge lies. In the meantime, the
Somali government needs to put in place the necessary apparatuses to efficiently
keep its arms safe in storage while averting any of them vanishing from the
army by simply pay them regular
wages and any other benefits in due course. Since the UN’s unrelenting
decades-old arms embargo on Somalia is justified as either lack of
accountability or diversion of weapons blamed on the government's weak public
sector accountability systems, which is likely to encourage illegal arms
dealing with a potential of ending up in the hands of terrorist groups. In the long term, though, a radical shift is
needed to rebuild both the country’s national army and police forces in order
to abate the increasing insecurity throughout the country. Yet, without lifting
the arms embargo from Somalia, it is most likely the terrorist group will continue
to wage their war against the innocent with impunity. It is therefore unconscionable
that the international community and the UN watch the Somali people suffer in
the hands of these ruthless killers, as they disempower the country’s army by
denying them the necessary resources to defend their motherland.
In the end, Somalia’s serious and recurrent security
lapses definitely do not lie in fear of guns which might fall into the wrong
hands but rather a country without a standing army and lack of effective weapons
to fight against the enemy. It would be wise before the international community
facilitates another bogus election to take place in the country with another
toothless government, they must urge the UN Security Council to take concrete
steps of lifting the arms embargo that necessitates the Somali army to become an
effective institution that defends the country’s security and dignity.
Heikal I. Kenneded
Washington D.C
